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一、行業背景

　　隨著智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)網從規劃論證(zheng)到分步(bu)實施的(de)(de)(de)深入(ru)演變，受益最(zui)明顯的(de)(de)(de)二(er)次設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)造企業的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)市公(gong)司(si)股(gu)價節節攀升，龍(long)頭老(lao)大國電(dian)南瑞（600406）已經(jing)完全填權，并(bing)且毫無止步(bu)之(zhi)(zhi)意。其(qi)實，智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)網中的(de)(de)(de)數字化變電(dian)站、智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)表智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)終端、分布式(shi)(shi)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源的(de)(de)(de)接(jie)入(ru)等(deng)最(zui)具(ju)顯性特色的(de)(de)(de)相關領域，其(qi)構建智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)進展(zhan)并(bing)不(bu)是(shi)一(yi)蹴而就的(de)(de)(de)。就像十年前光(guang)電(dian)互感(gan)器、61850的(de)(de)(de)概念曾經(jing)預計(ji)很(hen)快會顛覆整(zheng)個電(dian)力應用模式(shi)(shi)，到現在還處于應用的(de)(de)(de)起步(bu)階(jie)段一(yi)樣，除了(le)智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)表這個不(bu)是(shi)新鮮玩(wan)意兒的(de)(de)(de)概念會馬上(shang)兌現而外(wai)，其(qi)他還都是(shi)浮云。南瑞的(de)(de)(de)炒高(gao)除了(le)資金(jin)的(de)(de)(de)推動(dong)之(zhi)(zhi)外(wai)，更多是(shi)依(yi)靠(kao)其(qi)國網的(de)(de)(de)背(bei)景(jing)優勢(shi)。

　　然而，經濟發(fa)展(zhan)，電(dian)力(li)現行(xing)，尤其在倡(chang)導節能(neng)減排、綠色能(neng)源的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)本國策下，構建堅(jian)強智(zhi)能(neng)電(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)(de)必要(yao)性不(bu)言而喻(yu)。我國特(te)色社會(hui)主義的(de)(de)(de)(de)舉(ju)國之力(li)和(he)國家意志的(de)(de)(de)(de)戰(zhan)略高度(du)，更(geng)決定了構建堅(jian)強智(zhi)能(neng)電(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)可動(dong)搖。與(yu)電(dian)網智(zhi)能(neng)化的(de)(de)(de)(de)模式探索和(he)技術發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)不(bu)確定性形(xing)成鮮明對照的(de)(de)(de)(de)是(shi)，電(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)(de)基(ji)礎是(shi)必須(xu)加緊構建、改造、擴充的(de)(de)(de)(de)。智(zhi)能(neng)電(dian)網這一特(te)大蛋糕目前切出(chu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)最(zui)大一塊仍(reng)然是(shi)集中在大量(liang)更(geng)新的(de)(de)(de)(de)一次設備(bei)，而不(bu)是(shi)“智(zhi)能(neng)化”的(de)(de)(de)(de)二次設備(bei)。在一次設備(bei)中，除(chu)了變壓器、開關設備(bei)之外(wai)，最(zui)不(bu)起眼的(de)(de)(de)(de)也是(shi)份額最(zui)多的(de)(de)(de)(de)還是(shi)構建電(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)線路本身。

　　電(dian)(dian)力(li)線路分為架空(kong)線（LINE）和電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)（CABLE）兩種，份額最大(da)的(de)毫無疑問是(shi)構建高(gao)(gao)壓超高(gao)(gao)壓主網(wang)的(de)架空(kong)線。電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)的(de)應用以前(qian)更多(duo)(duo)的(de)是(shi)在工礦企業用戶內部、部分城(cheng)網(wang)，而(er)且以中低壓電(dian)(dian)力(li)電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)為主。隨著絕緣(yuan)耐壓水平的(de)提高(gao)(gao)，高(gao)(gao)壓、超高(gao)(gao)壓電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)的(de)應用也越來越多(duo)(duo)。新能源電(dian)(dian)站的(de)興建、裝備制造的(de)發展、軌道交通的(de)推廣等又(you)極大(da)擴充了電(dian)(dian)纜(lan)的(de)新型應用領域。

　　二、種類界定

　　電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)可以按(an)照(zhao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)壓(ya)等級來劃分(fen)：380V/220V～660V為(wei)(wei)低壓(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)，6kV～35kV為(wei)(wei)中(zhong)壓(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)，110kV~220kV為(wei)(wei)高壓(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)，330kV～500kV為(wei)(wei)超高壓(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)。也可以按(an)照(zhao)絕(jue)緣(yuan)(yuan)材(cai)料(liao)來劃分(fen)：PVC絕(jue)緣(yuan)(yuan)、PP絕(jue)緣(yuan)(yuan)、PE絕(jue)緣(yuan)(yuan)、XLPE（交聯聚(ju)乙烯）等。按(an)照(zhao)載體材(cai)料(liao)來分(fen)還可以分(fen)為(wei)(wei)：銅芯(xin)/鋁芯(xin)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、光(guang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)復合電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、超導電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)等。從(cong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)生(sheng)產工藝上看，可分(fen)為(wei)(wei)懸鏈生(sheng)產線、立(li)塔生(sheng)產線。如(ru)果按(an)照(zhao)用途來劃分(fen)那(nei)就更多了：輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、裝備(bei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、建(jian)筑電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、礦用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、船(chuan)用電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、軌(gui)道交通(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)、海(hai)底電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)等（不(bu)包括專用于弱(ruo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)系統的通(tong)(tong)信電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)和控制電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)(lan)）。

　　對于普通投(tou)資者來說(shuo)，最初的認識就是(shi)“生產電線的”，而(er)深入研究(jiu)時(shi)又會對紛繁復雜的品種無(wu)所適從。為(wei)了在投(tou)資時(shi)刪繁就簡、清(qing)晰界定，在此可以簡單地(di)把所有強電電纜(lan)(lan)分為(wei)兩大類(lei)——常(chang)規電纜(lan)(lan)、特種電纜(lan)(lan)。（資本市場投(tou)資分析所需，非專業分類(lei)！）

　　常規電(dian)(dian)纜——即在現有(you)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)和用戶中大(da)(da)量使用的常規意義上的電(dian)(dian)纜產品，包括幾乎所有(you)低(di)(di)壓(ya)(ya)電(dian)(dian)纜、大(da)(da)部分中壓(ya)(ya)電(dian)(dian)纜。這(zhe)也是(shi)我們以前(qian)(qian)包括目前(qian)(qian)對“電(dian)(dian)纜”概念的基(ji)本(ben)(ben)認識。這(zhe)部分產品由(you)于準入門檻低(di)(di)，成本(ben)(ben)波動(dong)大(da)(da)，同業低(di)(di)價競爭(zheng)異常慘烈，產品利潤空間(jian)被反復擠壓(ya)(ya)，前(qian)(qian)景(jing)不容樂(le)觀(guan)。

　　特(te)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)——包(bao)括中(zhong)低(di)壓(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)中(zhong)采用(yong)新型絕緣材料(liao)的(de)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、高(gao)壓(ya)超高(gao)壓(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)、新能(neng)源電(dian)(dian)(dian)站電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)，工業特(te)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)用(yong)途電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)，軌道交(jiao)通、海(hai)底傳輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)等。總(zong)之(zhi)，技術含量高(gao)、應用(yong)領域新、發(fa)展前景(jing)好、有進口產品(pin)(pin)替代需(xu)求的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)，都可(ke)以劃入特(te)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)。相比常(chang)規(gui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)，特(te)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)(lan)的(de)利潤空間較高(gao)，競爭對(dui)手較少。

　　三、特種(zhong)電纜需求

　　1、城鄉電網大面積改造對耐水樹電纜的放量需求

　　如果說“智能電網”對普通老(lao)百姓還是個陌(mo)生的(de)(de)(de)新概念的(de)(de)(de)話，身處(chu)全(quan)國(guo)各(ge)地(di)(di)的(de)(de)(de)每一個人，應該都體會到了(le)居住地(di)(di)電網的(de)(de)(de)擴建改(gai)造正(zheng)緊鑼密鼓(gu)地(di)(di)展開。尤其在城(cheng)網改(gai)造中(zhong)，配網入地(di)(di)已成趨勢。大城(cheng)市雙環網供(gong)電、空間走廊日(ri)益(yi)狹小、市中(zhong)心(xin)地(di)(di)下電纜(lan)率的(de)(de)(de)目標(biao)提(ti)升(sheng)（80%以上），都給中(zhong)壓配電電纜(lan)帶來極(ji)大的(de)(de)(de)需(xu)求(qiu)。而(er)電纜(lan)的(de)(de)(de)免(mian)維護(hu)要求(qiu)和(he)絕緣(yuan)耐壓的(de)(de)(de)壽(shou)命(ming)關注，又對配電電纜(lan)的(de)(de)(de)絕緣(yuan)介(jie)質、性能指標(biao)、品牌信譽提(ti)出更(geng)高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)要求(qiu)。

　　常規電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)的(de)絕(jue)緣(yuan)介質(zhi)在電(dian)(dian)(dian)場、水(shui)分(fen)和(he)雜(za)質(zhi)等(deng)絕(jue)緣(yuan)缺陷的(de)協同(tong)作(zuo)用下，逐(zhu)步產(chan)生樹枝狀早(zao)期(qi)劣(lie)化(hua)。當樹枝狀劣(lie)化(hua)貫穿(chuan)介質(zhi)或(huo)(huo)轉變成(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樹枝，將導致電(dian)(dian)(dian)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)線路的(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)本(ben)體或(huo)(huo)附件發生試驗擊(ji)穿(chuan)或(huo)(huo)運行擊(ji)穿(chuan)故障。所以，如(ru)何防止水(shui)樹（WT）和(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)樹（ET）的(de)產(chan)生，避免電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)絕(jue)緣(yuan)擊(ji)穿(chuan)，是(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)纜(lan)選型的(de)關鍵。

　　因此，具(ju)有(you)特殊工(gong)藝的(de)(de)耐(nai)水(shui)樹電纜自然(ran)就(jiu)得到青睞。雖然(ran)目(mu)前在(zai)整個中(zhong)壓電纜中(zhong)，耐(nai)水(shui)樹電纜的(de)(de)份額只有(you)10%，但(dan)優(you)越的(de)(de)抗擊穿性(xing)能和免(mian)維護性(xing)決定著耐(nai)水(shui)樹份額的(de)(de)大幅拉高指日可待。

　　2、高壓超高壓電纜(lan)的局部(bu)應用

　　高(gao)壓超(chao)高(gao)壓電網歷來(lai)(lai)以架空裸線為(wei)主。近年來(lai)(lai)，隨(sui)著電網容量(liang)的(de)擴大(da)，原有區域(yu)主干網110kV已(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)讓位于(yu)220kV，大(da)量(liang)的(de)110kV線路已(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)變身(shen)為(wei)主力(li)配網，城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)負荷(he)中(zhong)(zhong)心、商業中(zhong)(zhong)心、居民(min)中(zhong)(zhong)心對負荷(he)的(de)需求越(yue)來(lai)(lai)越(yue)大(da)，在(zai)城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)負荷(he)中(zhong)(zhong)心興(xing)(xing)建110kV變電站(zhan)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)大(da)力(li)開展，雖(sui)說居民(min)對電場輻射的(de)恐懼給城(cheng)市(shi)(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)心變電站(zhan)的(de)興(xing)(xing)建帶來(lai)(lai)阻(zu)力(li)，但這種趨勢(shi)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)形(xing)成。從而，110kV的(de)架空線必然大(da)量(liang)被電纜所取代。

　　另一方面(mian)，超高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓220kV、500kV主干網的大范圍興建(jian)，特(te)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓（750kV～1000kV）電網的新(xin)疆試點(dian)客觀上也(ye)帶動(dong)了連接(jie)架(jia)空線與變壓器、斷路器等主設備(bei)之間的短距高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓超高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓電纜的需(xu)求(qiu)。對(dui)高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓超高(gao)(gao)(gao)壓電纜的大量需(xu)求(qiu)是幾年前無法(fa)想象和預計的。

　　3、新能源(yuan)電站建設帶來(lai)專用(yong)電纜的需求

　　短短的(de)幾(ji)年，風電場(chang)在(zai)爭議聲中大舉興建，核電戰(zhan)略也(ye)在(zai)緊鑼密(mi)鼓地展開，光(guang)伏、光(guang)熱等新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)的(de)開發(fa)，自然帶來了與之(zhi)相對應的(de)特種電纜的(de)需求。

　　例(li)如核(he)電(dian)站對(dui)其使用的(de)電(dian)纜就有苛刻的(de)要求(qiu)和準入制度(du)，安全殼外的(de)1E級K3類環(huan)境條件，對(dui)使用溫度(du)、電(dian)壓壽命、熱(re)老(lao)化(hua)考(kao)核(he)及其嚴格(ge)。

　　目(mu)前，和新(xin)能源(yuan)核心器(qi)件的(de)狀態一樣，新(xin)能源(yuan)電(dian)站的(de)專用(yong)電(dian)纜(lan)大部分采用(yong)國外(wai)產品。國內(nei)有關廠家已經研(yan)制了(le)相關的(de)專用(yong)電(dian)纜(lan)，并已經準入。電(dian)纜(lan)大規(gui)模國產化替代的(de)速度要比核心器(qi)件快得多。

　　4、其它(ta)新(xin)興領域專用(yong)特(te)種電纜(lan)的需求

我(wo)國經濟的跨(kua)越(yue)式發(fa)展，出現了眾多(duo)新(xin)興領域，對(dui)專用特種電纜的需求也(ye)與日俱增。

　　同志們(men)例如城(cheng)市軌道交通電(dian)纜對導體(ti)的要(yao)(yao)求就很高，要(yao)(yao)采用緊壓束絞細(xi)銅絲為(wei)單(dan)元，再(zai)絞合成大截面導體(ti)。要(yao)(yao)求有(you)內外半導電(dian)屏蔽(bi)層，黃(huang)銅帶屏蔽(bi)防鼠(shu)咬，還要(yao)(yao)A類阻燃(ran)防火。

　　再如船(chuan)舶工業的(de)(de)發展(zhan)和海(hai)上鉆井平臺(tai)的(de)(de)開發對船(chuan)用電(dian)纜(lan)的(de)(de)防(fang)水(shui)、耐腐(fu)蝕、抗老化的(de)(de)性能指標要求會(hui)越(yue)(yue)來越(yue)(yue)高。

　　其它還有高(gao)鐵、航空航天、海底輸電(dian)、港(gang)口用電(dian)、礦(kuang)業(ye)井(jing)下作(zuo)業(ye)、電(dian)動(dong)汽車充電(dian)樁等越來越多的應用領(ling)域(yu)對專(zhuan)用特(te)種(zhong)電(dian)纜(lan)的需(xu)求。